Australian climate stable since 2012Dataset shows no warming for 14 years and four months Comparing the first and second halves of the time period from February 2012 to May 2026, Australia's mean temperature anomalies have effectively plateaued at -0.005C according to the Australian Climate Observation Reference Network (ACORN 2.6) for land stations (Bureau of Meteorology data source). Average maximum temperatures anomalies in Australia's south-east quarter have cooled by about 0.4C over that time period (data). The University of Alabama Huntsville satellite dataset for Australian lower troposphere anomalies (UAH 6.1) shows mean temperature warming of 0.306C when comparing the first and second halves of the period from February 2012 to May 2026 (with significant warming over Australia since 2021 as a result of UAH methodology being changed in November 2024). In a different timeframe from January 2013 to May 2026, ACORN also shows mean temperature cooling of 0.084C and UAH shows Australian lower troposphere warming of 0.242C when averaging the first and second halves of this time period. The ACORN dataset shows significant land surface warming since June 2023 and the UAH dataset shows significant warming of the lower troposphere since July 2023 - both potentially affected by the emergence of an El Nino in the Pacific Ocean, strong solar activity and abnormally high atmospheric moisture content due to the Hunga Tonga underwater volcanic eruption in December 2021. Comparing 2012-2018 with 2019-2025 (each period seven years), ACORN data show the trends are seasonal. Averaged mean temperature anomalies in Australia's cool months of April-October warmed slightly (+0.07C) and the hot months of October-April cooled significantly (-0.20C). Averaged maximum temperature anomalies in Australia's cool months of April-October cooled slightly (-0.03C) and the hot months of October-April cooled significantly (-0.37C). Averaged minimum temperature anomalies in Australia's cool months of April-October warmed significantly (+0.18C) and the hot months of October-April cooled slightly (-0.04C). Australia's climate became more moderate during these 12 years. The charts below are updated each month to track anomaly trends produced by the ACORN and UAH datasets.
The chart below tracks anomaly trends within ACORN 2.5 maximum temperatures.
The chart below tracks anomaly trends within ACORN 2.5 minimum temperatures.
It is worth noting the ACORN 2.5 mean, minimum and maximum temperature anomaly averages in Australia's seven state and territory jurisdictions: NSW/ACT mean : Feb 2012-Mar 2019 - 1.274C / Apr 2019-May 2026 - 1.068C (-0.206C) NSW/ACT minimum : Feb 2012-Mar 2019 - 0.990C / Apr 2019-May 2026 - 0.950C (-0.040C) NSW/ACT maximum : Feb 2012-Mar 2019 - 1.553C / Apr 2019-May 2026 - 1.181C (-0.372C) Northern Territory : Feb 2012-Mar 2019 - 0.800C / Apr 2019-May 2026 - 0.801C (+0.001C) Northern Territory minimum : Feb 2012-Mar 2019 - 0.538C / Apr 2019-May 2026 - 0.759C (+0.221C) Northern Territory maximum : Feb 2012-Mar 2019 - 1.053C / Apr 2019-May 2026 - 0.836C (-0.218C) Queensland : Feb 2012-Mar 2019 - 1.231C / Apr 2019-May 2026 - 1.153C (-0.078C) Queensland minimum : Feb 2012-Mar 2019 - 1.184C / Apr 2019-May 2026 - 1.262C (+0.078C) Queensland maximum : Feb 2012-Mar 2019 - 1.274C / Apr 2019-May 2026 - 1.040C (-0.234C) South Australia : Feb 2012-Mar 2019 - 1.137C / Apr 2019-May 2026 - 0.976C (-0.161C) South Australia minimum : Feb 2012-Mar 2019 - 0.769C / Apr 2019-May 2026 - 0.724C (-0.044C) South Australia maximum : Feb 2012-Mar 2019 - 1.496C / Apr 2019-May 2026 - 1.220C (-0.276C) Tasmania : Feb 2012-Mar 2019 - 0.602C / Apr 2019-May 2026 - 0.480C (-0.123C) Tasmania minimum : Feb 2012-Mar 2019 - 0.501C / Apr 2019-May 2026 - 0.387C (-0.114C) Tasmania maximum : Feb 2012-Mar 2019 - 0.699C / Apr 2019-May 2026 - 0.565C (-0.133C) Victoria : Feb 2012-Mar 2019 - 0.998C / Apr 2019-May 2026 - 0.702C (-0.266C) Victoria minimum : Feb 2012-Mar 2019 - 0.794C / Apr 2019-May 2026 - 0.677C (-0.117C) Victoria maximum : Feb 2012-Mar 2019 - 1.135C / Apr 2019-May 2026 - 0.719C (-0.416C) Western Australia : Feb 2012-Mar 2019 - 0.857C / Apr 2019-May 2026 - 1.054C (+0.197C) Western Australia minimum : Feb 2012-Mar 2019 - 0.490C / Apr 2019-May 2026 - 0.710C (+0.220C) Western Australia maximum : Feb 2012-Mar 2019 - 1.219C / Apr 2019-May 2026 - 1.393C (+0.174C) The cumulative mean temperature average of these jurisdictional anomalies equals -0.091C when comparing Feb 2012-Mar 2019 with Apr 2019-May 2026, mean temperature warming only apparent in Western Australia and the Northern Territory. The cumulative minimum temperature average of these jurisdictional anomalies equals +0.029C when comparing Feb 2012-Mar 2019 with Apr 2019-May 2026. The cumulative maximum temperature average of these jurisdictional anomalies equals -0.211C when comparing Feb 2012-Mar 2019 with Apr 2019-May 2026. The chart below tracks monthly anomaly trends within the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration mean temperatures (1910-2000 mean baseline) for the Oceania region (comprising Australia, Papua New Guinea, New Zealand, Fiji, Solomon Islands, Federated States Of Micronesia, Vanuatu, Samoa, Kiribati, Tonga, Marshall Islands, Palau, Tuvalu and Nauru).
The trends above from different datasets are worth monitoring as most Australian public policy is hostile to fossil fuels and targetted at renewable energy but is based on the inaccurate premise that Australia's climate is warming rapidly, according to the official ACORN 2.5 monthly temperature anomalies published by the Bureau of Meteorology. Note : ACORN and UAH data above are updated usually on the third or fourth day of each month, while NOAA anomalies for Oceania are usually updated in the middle of each month.
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