Australian climate stable since 2012

Dataset shows no warming for 12 years and six months

Comparing the first and second halves of the time period from August 2012 to January 2025, Australia's climate anomalies have plateaued (or cooled by 0.012C), according to the Australian Climate Observation Reference Network (ACORN 2.5) for land stations (Bureau of Meteorology data source).

The University of Alabama Huntsville satellite dataset for Australian lower troposphere anomalies (UAH 6.1) shows mean temperature warming of 0.219C when comparing the first and second halves of the period from August 2012 to January 2025 (with significant warming over Australia since 2021 as a result of UAH methodology being changed in November 2024).

From January 2013 to January 2025, ACORN shows mean temperature cooling of 0.037C and UAH shows Australian lower troposphere warming of 0.191C when averaging the first and second halves of this time period.

The ACORN dataset shows significant land surface warming since June 2023 and the UAH dataset shows significant warming of the lower troposphere since July 2023 - both potentially affected by the emergence of an El Nino in the Pacific Ocean, strong solar activity and abnormally high atmospheric moisture content due to the Hunga Tonga underwater volcanic eruption in December 2021.

The chart below is updated each month to track anomaly trends produced by both datasets.

The chart below tracks anomaly trends within ACORN 2.5 maximum temperatures.

The chart below tracks anomaly trends within ACORN 2.5 minimum temperatures.

It is worth noting the ACORN 2.5 mean temperature anomaly averages in Australia's seven state and territory jurisdictions:

NSW/ACT : Aug 2012-Oct 2018 - 1.319C / Nov 2018-Jan 2025 - 1.059C (-0.260C)

Northern Territory : Aug 2012-Oct 2018 - 0.823C / Nov 2018-Jan 2025 - 0.948C (+0.125C)

Queensland : Aug 2012-Oct 2018 - 1.332C / Nov 2018-Jan 2025 - 1.227C (-0.105C)

South Australia : Aug 2012-Oct 2018 - 1.211C / Nov 2018-Jan 2025 - 0.933C (-0.278C)

Tasmania : Aug 2012-Oct 2018 - 0.588C / Nov 2018-Jan 2025 - 0.523C (-0.065C)

Victoria : Aug 2012-Oct 2018 - 0.976C / Nov 2018-Jan 2025 - 0.717C (-0.259C)

Western Australia : Aug 2012-Oct 2018 - 0.892C / Nov 2018-Jan 2025 - 1.085C (+0.193C)

The cumulative average of these jurisdictional anomalies equals -0.093C when comparing Aug 2012-Oct 2018 with Nov 2018-Jan 2025, warming only apparent in the Northern Territory and Western Australia.

The chart below tracks anomaly trends within the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration mean temperatures (1910-2000 mean baseline) for the Oceania region (comprising Australia, Papua New Guinea, New Zealand, Fiji, Solomon Islands, Federated States Of Micronesia, Vanuatu, Samoa, Kiribati, Tonga, Marshall Islands, Palau, Tuvalu and Nauru) - noting that each month NOAA significantly changes the monthly anomalies within its dataset dating back to 1910.

These trends are worth monitoring as most Australian public policy hostile to fossil fuels and targetted at renewable energy is now based on the inaccurate premise that Australia's climate is warming rapidly, according to the official ACORN 2.5 monthly temperature anomalies published by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Note : ACORN and UAH data above are updated usually on the third or fourth day of each month, while NOAA anomalies for Oceania are usually updated in the middle of each month.

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